a low genetic-susceptibility score (≤21 BMI-increasing alleles, 2.2% (n=175) of the ARIC sample) was 2.73 kg/m2, equivalent to a 6.99 to 8.85 kg body weight difference in adults 160–180 cm in height (Fig. 2a). Still, we note that the predictive value for obesity risk and BMI of the 32 variants combined was modest, although statistically significant (Fig. 2b, Supplementary Fig. 4). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for prediction of risk of obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) using age, age2 and sex only was 0.515 (P = 0.023 compared to AUC of 0.50), which increased to 0.575 (P < 10−5) when also the 32 confirmed SNPs were included in the model (Fig. 2b). The area under the ROC for the 32 SNPs only was 0.574 (P < 10−5).
