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Chunk #83 — Discussion

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A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.
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A recent study estimated that 5·3 million deaths were attributable to physical inactivity in 2008.186 This number, which has been widely quoted and equated with the number of deaths attributable to tobacco smoking,187 used effect sizes for all-cause mortality obtained from cohorts of adults mainly from North America and Europe and applied these effects to deaths at all ages. This approach not only assumes that the cause distribution is the same in all populations, irrespective of region and age structure, but also extends the effects to people younger than those in the cohort study, including to infants and children. In other words, a proportion of deaths from maternal causes, neonatal causes, and children’s infectious diseases and HIV were attributed to physical inactivity.186 The prevalence of inactivity also included people who had sedentary patterns as well as those in the low (insufficient) activity group. By contrast, our approach—calculating attributable burden by cause and age group, and accounting for exposure in four categories—estimated substantially fewer attributable deaths: 3·2 million (2·7 million to 3·7 million) in 2010, 56% of what we attribute to