Although only a small minority of individuals are severely obese in early adulthood, the prevalence increases rapidly over subsequent decades (NCD Risk Factor Collaboration, 2017). We hypothesized that the GPS might predict who would go on to develop severe obesity during the transition from young adulthood to middle age. We analyzed data from the Framingham Offspring and Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) studies, in which participants were weighed at an initial baseline assessment and at additional study visits over the subsequent decades (Feinleib et al., 1975; Friedman et al., 1988). We identified 3,722 young adult participants – none of whom were severely obese at time of baseline assessment – in whom GPS calculation was possible. Mean age at baseline assessment was 28.0 years, 48% were female, and mean BMI was 24.2 kg/m2. These individuals were weighed at up to 8 subsequent visits over a median follow-up of 27 years to determine incidence of severe obesity.
