Warner and White19 selected those who provided data at all follow-up intervals from a larger cohort study and were assessed at the earliest age of 12 years, specifically to minimise recall bias in respect of AFD (median AFD was 10 years). The final sample size was 447. They separately enquired about AFD in family and other contexts and gathered data on various aspects of the experience of the first drinking episode. They defined early AFD as reported drinking prior to age 11 years. Data on AFD were collected at age 12 years, 15 years and 18 years, with additional follow-ups at age 25 years and age 30 years or 31 years. Early AFD in family (OR 2.39: 95% CI 1.10 to 5.20) and other contexts (OR 5.75: 95% CI 1.53 to 21.54) were associated with lifetime problem drinking by age 31 years in a model adjusting for various characteristics of the first drinking episode as well as gender, socioeconomic status and religion. However, neither AFD nor context of first drink was a statistically significant predictor of alcohol problems in a
