Figure 3 shows the proportion of variance explained in target sets (Nagelkerke’s pseudo R2 from logistic regression) by risk scores from the discovery sets. We noted highly significant overlap of polygenic risk between all three adult disorders (bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, and schizophrenia), with the strongest effects noted for bipolar disorder and schizophrenia (figure 3). Overlap was reduced but still significant between aggregate genetic risk for autism spectrum disorder with schizophrenia (minimum p<10−4) and bipolar disorder (p<0·05; figure 3). No consistently significant polygenic overlap was detected between major depressive disorder and autism spectrum disorder or between attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder and any other disorder. Appendix p 63 shows additional polygene analyses combining subsets of disorders into discovery sets.
