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Chunk #31 — Out-of-sample prediction accuracy

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A saturated map of common genetic variants associated with human height.
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reflects the fact that PGSs can explain within-family differences between siblings, whereas average parental height cannot. To show this empirically, we estimate that our PGSs based on GWS SNPs explain around 33% (s.e. 0.7%) of height variance between siblings (Methods). Finally, we show that the optimal weighting between parental average and PGS can be predicted theoretically as a function of the prediction accuracy of the PGS, the full narrow sense heritability and the phenotypic correlation between spouses (Supplementary Note 4 and Supplementary Fig. 20).