The modeled rate of increase in CDR‐SB was then used to estimate the remaining time of independence in IADLs and BADLs. First we estimated the CDR‐SB over time for each baseline CDR‐SB (Figure 2A). Next, for each baseline CDR‐SB value we estimated the time to loss of independence in IADLs (time to CDR‐SB = 4.5) and BADLs (time to CDR‐SB = 11.5), with the corresponding CIs (Figure 2B). For example, an individual with a baseline CDR‐SB = 2 (with a corresponding global CDR 0.5) is estimated to have an annual increase in CDR‐SB of 1.05, with a 95% CI of 0.85–1.26 (Figure 2A). Based on this, the expected time to loss of independence in IADLs (CDR‐SB = 4.5) is 29 months (95% CI 24–35 months). We made analogous computations for each baseline CDR‐SB, computing remaining time of independence in IADLs for baseline CDR‐SB <4.5 and remaining time of independence in BADLs for baseline CDR‐SB <11.5 (Figure 2B). This assumes linear rates of change that are constant within global CDR 0.5, and constant within global CDR 1.
