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Chunk #38 — Methods — New risks and risks with significant changes in the estimation methods compared with GBD 2015

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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016.
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We took several steps to improve the estimation of alcohol use as a risk factor. First, on the exposure side, we added 26 survey series, which contributed 12 195 datapoints in our models. Second, we developed and implemented a method that adjusts total consumption for tourism and unrecorded consumption for each location-year. Third, we calculated the TMREL. We chose TMREL as being the exposure that minimises an individual's risk of suffering burden from any given cause related to alcohol (appendix 1 p 22 for more detail). Fourth, we performed a systematic review of all cohort and case-control studies reporting a RR, hazard ratio, or odds ratio for any risk-outcome pairs studied in GBD 2016 and then modelled a dose-response relationship using DisMod ordinary differential equations (ODE).18 Fifth, we estimated injury PAFs from cohort studies and adjusted them to account for victims.