We used a Bayesian statistical framework to calculate winner’s-curse-adjusted posterior distributions of the effect sizes of the lead SNPs (Online Methods). We found that the median effect size of the lead SNPs corresponds to 1.7 weeks of schooling per allele; at the 5th and 95th percentiles, 1.1 and 2.6 weeks, respectively. We also examined the replicability of the 162 single-SNP associations (P < 5×10−8) reported from the combined discovery and replication sample (N = 405,073) of the largest previous study10. In the subsample of our data (N = 726,808) that did not contribute to the earlier study’s analyses, the SNPs replicate at a rate that closely matches theoretical projections derived from our Bayesian framework (Supplementary Figure 3).
