Table 2 addresses Hypothesis 2 regarding whether BOLD response contrasts in the 13 ROIs identified for this task in the Paulus et al. (2012) cross-sectional paper correlated with future alcohol quantities and/or problems. Focusing on the two outcomes that correlated significantly with LR in Table 2 (maximum drinks and alcohol problems) among the nine happy faces-related regions, four (ROIs 2, 3, 8, and 9) correlated at p≤.072 with alcohol problem outcomes, and among angry faces one ROI baseline BOLD response contrast (ROI 11) correlated with future maximum alcohol quantities at p<.05 and p=.082 for two baseline measures. Using the exact binomial, the probability that five ROIs would correlate with the two outcomes across 13 regions is p<.05. Within the five regions that correlated with an adverse outcome (ROIs 2,3,8,9 and 11) there were 30 evaluations (five ROIs with three conditions each [placebo, alcohol, and difference scores] across two outcomes), nine of which correlated with baseline fMRI results at p≤.082, creating a significant exact binomial that the outcome was beyond chance (p<.001). Looking at the outcome with the highest number of
