Figure 3 shows the false discovery rate as a function of varying assumptions about power and the prior. If cG×E hypotheses prove to be like candidate gene hypotheses, with (optimistic) values of the prior and power of 5% and 55%, respectively, then approximately two-thirds (63%) of positive findings would represent type I errors. Using values of the prior (1%) and statistical power (10%) that may be more realistic, the false discovery rate is 98%. Obviously, the true false discovery rate in the cG×E field may be higher, lower, or in between these values.
