Thus, accumulating evidence suggests that an understanding of the neurobiological underpinnings of psychiatric disorders has, to date, typically been insufficient to lead to correct hypotheses regarding candidate polymorphisms. Colhoun et al. (9) estimated that 95% of candidate gene main effect findings were actually false positives, which translates to a prior of between 0.3% and 3% (assuming statistical power is between 10% and 90%). Because of the need also to specify the correct moderating environmental variable, generating cG×E hypotheses that prove correct may be even more difficult than it has been for (simpler) genetic main effect hypotheses. Thus, the prior for cG×E studies may be lower than the 0.3% to 3% it appears to be for candidate gene main effect hypotheses.
