Using Model 5 to plot fitted cumulative incidence curves, Fig. 1 visually illustrates the relative contributions of the significant predictors of MBFD, the presence of the high-risk TT genotype, and ancestry. Other covariates and predictors were held constant in this fitted model using the following constraints: sex = male (1), age = 17 (sample maximum), the number of CD symptoms = 0 (sample median), membership in a high-risk family = yes (sample mode), and YSR externalizing score = 11 (sample median). The top half of Fig. 1 shows the curves for EA males, with the high-risk TT genotype present in panel A and absent in panel B. In both of these panels, the two curves represent the mean cumulative risk, and the 95% confidence interval, of initiating drinking, for subjects with and without MBFD. Analogous cumulative incidence curves are shown in the bottom half of Fig. 1 (panels C and D) for African-Americans. In Fig. 1, an EA male with both MBFD and the high-risk TT genotype had the highest probability of starting drinking at any age; specifically, Model 5
