Because many previously identified correlates of recovery were not supported by the present analysis, it may be informative to speculate on possible causes of the discrepancies. Many of these occurred relative to an earlier cross-sectional analysis of the Wave 1 NESARC data that examined past-year recovery among those with a prior onset of dependence (Dawson et al., 2005. For example, the earlier study found positive associations of age with AR and of interval since onset of dependence with both AR and NR that were not replicated in the current study. However, the earlier study’s measures of age and interval since onset corresponded to the end of the observation period over which recovery was retrospectively assessed. Their positive associations simply reflect the increasing cumulative probability of recovery over time. In contrast, identical measures of Wave 1 past-year age and interval since onset corresponded to the beginning of the observation period in the current study, by which point older ages and longer intervals represented markers of chronic dependence, implying a poor prognosis for future recovery. Thus, correlates of recovery take on quite
