Our preferred score was constructed with LDpred28. Our largest validation cohort (n ~ 35,000) is the UKB-siblings cohort. In that validation cohort, the score’s predictive power is 1.6% for general risk tolerance, 1.0% for the first PC of the four risky behaviors, 0.8% for number of sexual partners, 0.6% for automobile speeding propensity, and ~0.15% for drinks per week and ever smoker. Across our validation cohorts, in which other phenotypes are measured, the score is also predictive of several personality phenotypes and a suite of real-world measures of risky behaviors in the health, financial, career, and other domains (Supplementary Figs. 8–9 and Supplementary Tables 11–14). The incremental R2 we observe for general risk tolerance is consistent with our theoretical prediction, given the GWAS sample sizes, the SNP heritability of general risk tolerance (Table 1), and the imperfect genetic correlations across the GWAS and validation cohorts29,30 (Supplementary Note).
