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Chunk #21 — RESULTS: — Polygenic prediction

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Genome-wide association analyses of risk tolerance and risky behaviors in over 1 million individuals identify hundreds of loci and shared genetic influences.
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We constructed polygenic scores of general risk tolerance to gauge their potential usefulness in empirical research (Supplementary Note). We used the Add Health, HRS, NTR, STR, UKB-siblings, and Zurich cohorts as validation cohorts (Supplementary Table 5 provides an overview of these cohorts; the UKB-siblings cohort comprised individuals with at least one full sibling in the UKB). For each validation cohort, we constructed the score using summary statistics from a meta-analysis of our discovery and replication GWAS that excluded the cohort (for the UKB-siblings cohort, we reran our UKB GWAS after excluding individuals from that cohort). Our measure of predictive power is the incremental R2 (or pseudo-R2) from adding the score to a regression of the phenotype on controls for sex, birth year, and the top ten principal components of the genetic relatedness matrix.