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Chunk #36 — Discussion

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Mining the human phenome using allelic scores that index biological intermediates.
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We note that the present study has benefitted from very large genome-wide association meta-analyses from which the SNPs that comprise the genome-wide allelic scores were selected [3], [13], [14]. A recent study by Demirkan et al. (2012) found that a polygenic score only explained 2.6% of the phenotypic variance in LDLc [23]. Demirkan et al suggested that this low figure might have been a consequence of the small size of the discovery sample on which their weighting scheme was based (i.e. ∼20,000 individuals as compared to the ∼100,000 individuals used in Teslovich et al which forms the basis of this study) and consequently decreased precision in estimating effect sizes and direction of effects. These factors (plus the existence of some loci of large effect in ALSPAC) may also partially explain the comparatively better predictive ability in our study (particularly at more liberal p value inclusion thresholds) as construction of allelic scores in ALSPAC was based on the much larger Teslovich et al meta-analysis. Although the proportion of variance explained in ALSPAC was greater than that found by Demirkan et al.,