Of the 158 SNPs, we found that 154 have matching signs in the new data (for the remaining four SNPs, the estimated effect is never statistically distinguishable from zero at P < 0.10). Of the 154 SNPs with matching signs, 143 are significant at P < 0.01, 119 are significant at P < 10−5, and 97 are significant at P < 5×10−8. The replication results are shown graphically in Supplementary Figure 3. To help interpret these results, we used the Bayesian framework described above to calculate the expected replication record under the hypothesis that all 158 SNPs are true associations. The posterior distributions of the SNPs’ effect sizes are calculated using parameters estimated from Okbay et al.’s summary statistics: (τ^2,π^)=(5.02×10−6,0.33).
