at baseline. Thus, we focused on the long-term outcome levels rather than baseline levels. This intercept selection approach is equivalent to centering a time metric variable at 15 months in latent curve models (see also the Appendix). All latent variable analyses were conducted using Mplus version 5.0 (Muthén & Muthén, 1998-2007) and subsequent logistic regressions were conducted using SPSS version 16 (SPSS Inc., 1989-2007).