Valid measures predict key outcomes related to the construct that they are intended to assess. DSM based measures do not impressively predict major dependence outcomes. Such measures do yield some evidence of predictive validity; scores on the Tobacco Dependence Screener (the TDS, a measure based on DSM [36]) are related to measures of tobacco self-administration (e.g., number of cigarettes smoked/day or light vs. heavy smoking), can distinguish between light and heavy smokers [36, 38], and can predict increased subsequent smoking amongst neophyte adolescent smokers [39, 40]. And, at least one study reports that DSM-type items predict cessation likelihood as well or better than other dependence measures such as the FTND [36].
