The promise of risk prediction has (sometimes ominously) hovered over the study of disease genetics since the initial sequencing of the human genome. Genetic risk prediction has never become as powerful as some early hype suggested it would be, but neither is it as useless as some detractors claim. Genetic risk prediction can already improve upon classical prediction, in some cases substantially so. However, as is true for classical predictors, the utility of genetic risk prediction is dependent not just on predictive accuracy, but also on cost and the ability of clinicians and patients to effectively use this information. The falling cost of whole-genome sequencing will drive the marginal cost of prediction lower and lower, but further progress in gene-mapping research, infrastructure and medical practice will be needed to take full advantage of genetic risk prediction.
