Outcome expectancies (anticipated outcomes of a given behavior or situation) are central to the RP model and have been studied extensively in the domain of alcohol use [27]. In theory, expectancies are shaped by various tonic risk factors (e.g., environment, culture, personality, genetics) and mediate these antecedent influences on drinking [27]. Research supports that expectancies could partly mediate influences such as personality factors [50], genetic variations [51,52], and negative affect [53] on drinking. Outcome expectancies could also be involved as a phasic response to situational factors. In the first study to examine how daily fluctuations in expectancies predict relapse [45], researchers assessed positive outcome expectancies for smoking (POEs) among participants during a tobacco cessation attempt. Lower POEs on the quit day were associated with greater abstinence likelihood, and POEs decreased in the days following the quit day. Lapses were associated with higher POEs on the preceding day, and in the days following a lapse those who avoided a full relapse showed decreases in POEs whereas those who relapsed did not [45]. These results suggest that outcome expectancies might play a role in predicting relapse as both a tonic and phasic risk factor.
