Predicting alcohol use disorder remission: a longitudinal multimodal multi-featured machine learning approach.
- Authors
- Kinreich, Sivan; McCutcheon, Vivia V; Aliev, Fazil; Meyers, Jacquelyn L; Kamarajan, Chella; Pandey, Ashwini K; Chorlian, David B; Zhang, Jian; Kuang, Weipeng; Pandey, Gayathri; Viteri, Stacey Subbie-Saenz de; Francis, Meredith W; Chan, Grace; Bourdon, Jessica L; Dick, Danielle M; Anokhin, Andrey P; Bauer, Lance; Hesselbrock, Victor; Schuckit, Marc A; Nurnberger, John I; Foroud, Tatiana M; Salvatore, Jessica E; Bucholz, Kathleen K; Porjesz, Bernice
- Year
- 2021
- Journal
- Translational psychiatry
- PMID
- 33723218
- DOI
- 10.1038/s41398-021-01281-2
- PMCID
- PMC7960734
Predictive models for recovering from alcohol use disorder (AUD) and identifying related predisposition biomarkers can have a tremendous impact on addiction treatment outcomes and cost reduction. Our sample (Nβ=β1376) included individuals of European (EA) and African (AA) ancestry from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism (COGA) who were initially assessed as having AUD (DSM-5) and reassessed years later as either having AUD or in remission. To predict this difference in AUD recovery status, we analyzed the initial data using multimodal, multi-features machine learning applications including EEG source-level functional brain connectivity, Polygenic Risk Scores (PRS), medications, and demographic information. Sex and ancestry age-matched stratified analyses were performed with supervised linear Support Vector Machine application and were calculated twice, once when the ancestry was defined by self-report and once defined by genetic data. Multifeatured prediction models achieved higher accuracy scores than models based on a single domain and higher scores in male models when the ancestry was based on genetic data. The AA male group model with PRS, EEG functional connectivity, marital and employment status features achieved the highest accuracy of 86.04%. Several discriminative features were identified, including collections of PRS related to neuroticism, depression, aggression, years of education, and alcohol consumption phenotypes. Other discriminated features included being married, employed, medication, lower default mode network and fusiform connectivity, and higher insula connectivity. Results highlight the importance of increasing genetic homogeneity of analyzed groups, identifying sex, and ancestry-specific features to increase prediction scores revealing biomarkers related to AUD remission.
Model accuracy stratified by sex and ancestry.Prediction obtained by only the PRS, the combined EEG and PRS, and features from the highest accuracy scored model for every group (Table 1). Results indicate higher accuracy for the combined feature models suggesting the advantage of adding phenotypes to genetic prediction models. The error bars are standard deviations. *p < 0.05, **p < 0.01.
EEG functional connectivity AUD remission biomarkers.AUD remission prediction models reveal ancestry/sex group-specific brain connectivity biomarkers discriminating between those who recovered from AUD to those who did not. Results highlight lower connectivity in theta (blue) and gamma (red) in areas related to DMN (in bold -IT, PCC, PR, raCC, PH) and higher connectivity in theta (blue) and beta (orange) between insula and inferior and superior parietal regions respectively (in bold INS, IP, IT) specific to every sex and ancestry predicting the maintenance of AUD. blue-theta, green-alpha, orange-beta, red-gamma. Thinner linesβlower connectivity, Thicker linesβhigher connectivity. CMF Caudal middle frontal, FF fusiform, FP frontal pole, INS insula, IC Isthmus cingulate, IP inferior parietal, IT inferior temporal, LI lingual, LO Lateral Occipital, MOF medial orbito frontal, PC paracentral, PCC posterior cingulate cortex, PH parahippocampus, PO parsorbitalis, PR precuneus, raCC rostral anterior cingulate cortex, SM supramarginal, rmF Rostral middle frontal, TP temporal pole, TT Transverse temporal, SP Superior parietal, ST Superior temporal.
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