Trends in Adult Alcohol Use and Binge Drinking in the Early 21st-Century United States: A Meta-Analysis of 6 National Survey Series.
paper
Primary
Public
- Authors
- Grucza, Richard A; Sher, Kenneth J; Kerr, William C; Krauss, Melissa J; Lui, Camillia K; McDowell, Yoanna E; Hartz, Sarah; Virdi, Gurpal; Bierut, Laura J
- Year
- 2018
- Journal
- Alcoholism, clinical and experimental research
- PMID
- 30080258
- DOI
- 10.1111/acer.13859
- PMCID
- PMC6364977
BACKGROUND: Recent trends in alcoholic liver disease, alcohol-related emergency room admissions, and alcohol use disorder prevalence as measured by general-population surveys have raised concerns about rising alcohol-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. In contrast, upward trends in per capita alcohol consumption have been comparatively modest. METHODS: To resolve these discordant observations, we sought to examine trends in the prevalence of alcohol use and binge drinking from 6 regularly or periodically administered national surveys using a meta-analytic approach. Annual or periodic prevalence estimates for past-12-month or past-30-day alcohol use and binge drinking were estimated for available time points between the years 2000 and 2016. Estimates were combined in a random-effects regression model in which prevalence was modeled as a log-linear function of time to obtain meta-analytic trend estimates for the full population and by sex, race, age, and educational attainment. RESULTS: Meta-analysis-derived estimates of average annual percentage increase in the prevalence of alcohol use and binge drinking were 0.30% per year (95% CI: 0.22%, 0.38%) and 0.72% per year (95% CI: 0.46%, 0.98%), respectively. There was substantial between-survey heterogeneity among trend estimates, although there was notable consistency in the degree to which trends have impacted various demographic groups. For example, most surveys found that the changes in prevalence for alcohol use and binge drinking were large and positive for ages 50 to 64 and 65 and up, and smaller, negative, or nonsignificant for ages 18 to 29. CONCLUSIONS: Significant increases in the prevalence of alcohol use and of binge drinking over the past 10 to 15Β years were observed, but not for all demographic groups. However, the increase in binge drinking among middle-aged and older adults is substantial and may be driving increasing rates of alcohol-related morbidity and mortality.
Yearly prevalence estimates for (A) past year or past month alcohol use and (B) past year or past month binge drinking. Trend lines are derived from regression analyses of outcome as a function of year with dummy-indicators used to specify additional intercept parameters to reflect changes in item wording or other design changes.
LLM interpretation
This figure consists of two line graphs (A and B) showing yearly prevalence estimates from 2000 to 2016 across six different surveys (NSDUH, NHIS, BRFSS, NESARC, NHANES, and NAS). Panel A displays prevalence for past year or past month alcohol use, while Panel B displays prevalence for binge drinking, both plotted as a percentage on the y-axis against the year on the x-axis. Most surveys show a slight upward trend over time, with the BRFSS survey consistently reporting the lowest prevalence in both panels.
Forest plot of regression coefficients describing the association between prevalence of alcohol use and year for each of the six survey series and meta-analysis regression coefficient. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals
LLM interpretation
This forest plot displays regression coefficients and 95% confidence intervals showing the association between alcohol use prevalence and year across six survey series (NSDUH, NHIS, BRFSS, NESARC, NHANES, NAS) and a meta-analysis. The data is categorized by demographic groups, including sex, race/ethnicity, age, and education level. Most coefficients are positive and centered around or to the right of the zero line, though results vary by survey and subgroup, particularly among Native and Asian populations.
Simulated trend lines for past year alcohol use prevalence based on trend estimates from meta-analysis and using 2002 NSDUH data to establish baseline prevalence.
LLM interpretation
This figure consists of four line graphs showing simulated trends in past-year alcohol use prevalence from 2002 to 2015. The y-axis represents "Past-Year Prevalence" (ranging from 40 to 80) and the x-axis represents the year. The panels compare prevalence across different demographic groups: gender (Overall, Men, Women), race/ethnicity (White, Black, Native, Asian, Hispanic), age (18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65+), and education level (< HS, HS Only, > HS).
Forest plot of regression coefficients describing the association between prevalence of binge drinking and year for each of the six survey series and meta-analysis regression coefficient. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals.
LLM interpretation
This forest plot displays regression coefficients and 95% confidence intervals showing the association between binge drinking prevalence and year across six survey series (NSDUH, NHIS, BRFSS, NESARC, NHANES, NAS) and a meta-analysis. The data is stratified by overall population, sex, race/ethnicity, age group, and education level. Most coefficients are positive, particularly for the "Ages 65+" group and the overall meta-analysis, indicating an increasing trend in binge drinking prevalence over time.
Simulated trend lines for past year binge drinking prevalence based on trend estimates from meta-analysis and using 2002 NSDUH data to establish baseline prevalence.
LLM interpretation
This figure consists of four line graphs showing simulated trends in past-year binge drinking prevalence from 2002 to 2015. The panels categorize prevalence by gender (Overall, Men, Women), race/ethnicity (White, Black, Native, Asian, Hispanic), age group (18-29, 30-49, 50-64, 65+), and education level (< HS, HS Only, > HS). Across most groups, prevalence remains relatively stable or shows a slight increase over time, with the most notable divergence seen in the age group panel.
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