Figure 1 shows predicted probabilities of alcohol dependence from the three-way interaction model presented in Model III of Table 3. There was a strong negative relationship between positive daily life events and alcohol dependence for men with the high-risk genotype at GABRA2 such that the predicted probability of alcohol dependence at the lowest level of uplifts (0) was 0.77, compared to 0.35 at the highest observed level of uplifts in this group (2.5). The difference in predicted probabilities of alcohol dependence at 0 uplifts for men with the low- and high-risk genotypes (0.49 vs 0.76) was statistically significant (Z = 3.35, p < 0.01), as was the difference at 1 uplift (0.47 vs 0.62, Z = 3.62, p < 0.01). However, differences in predicted probabilities at 2 uplifts (where the lines cross) or more were not statistically significant. In contrast to the pattern observed for men, the differences in predicted probabilities were not significant at any level of uplifts for women.
