Genome-wide association study identifies 74 loci associated with educational attainment.

Quantile-quantile plot of the genome-wide association meta-analysis of 64 EduYears results filesObserved and expected P-values are on a –log10 scale. The grey region depicts the 95% confidence interval under the null hypothesis of a uniform P-value distribution. The observed λGC is 1.28. (As reported in Supplementary Information section 1.5.4, the unweighted mean λGC is 1.02, the unweighted median is 1.01, and the range across cohorts is 0.95–1.15.)

The predictive power of a polygenic score (PGS) varies in Sweden by birth cohortFive-year rolling regressions of years of education on the PGS (left axis in all four panels), share of individuals not affected by the comprehensive school reform (a, right axis), and average distance to nearest junior high school (b, right axis), nearest high school (c, right axis) and nearest college/university (d, right axis). The shaded area displays the 95% confidence intervals for the PGS effect.

Manhattan plot for EduYears associations (N = 293,723)The x-axis is chromosomal position, and the y-axis is the significance on a –log10 scale. The black line shows the genome-wide significance level (5×10-8). The red x's are the 74 approximately independent genome-wide significant associations (“lead SNPs”). The black dots labeled with rs numbers are the 3 Rietveld et al.1 SNPs.

Genetic correlations between EduYears and other traitsResults from bivariate Linkage-Disequilibrium (LD) Score regressions9: estimates of genetic correlation with brain volume, neuropsychiatric, behavioral, and anthropometric phenotypes using published GWAS summary statistics. The error bars show the 95% confidence intervals.

Overview of biological annotation34 clusters of significantly enriched gene sets. Each cluster is named after one of its member gene sets. The color represents the P-value of the member set exhibiting the most statistically significant enrichment. Overlap between pairs of clusters is represented by an edge. Edge width represents the Pearson correlation ρ between the two vectors of gene membership scores (ρ < 0.3, no edge; 0.3 ≤ ρ < 0.5, thin edge; 0.5 ≤ ρ < 0.7, intermediate edge; ρ ≥ 0.7, thick edge), where each cluster's vector is the vector for the gene set after which the cluster is named.

The distribution of effect sizes of the 74 lead SNPsa, SNPs ordered by absolute value of the standardized effect of one more copy of the education-increasing allele, with 95% confidence intervals. b, SNPs ordered by R2. Effects on EduYears are benchmarked against the top 74 genome-wide significant hits identified in the largest GWAS conducted to date of height and body mass index (BMI), and the 48 associations reported for waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI (WHR). These results are based on the GIANT consortium's publicly available results for pooled analyses restricted to European-ancestry individuals: https://www.broadinstitute.org/collaboration/giant/index.php/GIANT_consortium.

Assessing the extent to which population stratification affects the estimates from the GWASa, LD Score regression plot with the summary statistics from the GWAS. Each point represents an LD Score quantile for a chromosome (the x and y coordinates of the point are the mean LD Score and the mean χ2 statistic of variants in that quantile). The facts that the intercept is close to one and that the χ2 statistics increase linearly with the LD Scores suggest that the bulk of the inflation in the χ2 statistics is due to true polygenic signal and not to population stratification. b, Estimates and 95% confidence intervals from individual-level and WF regressions of EduYears on polygenic scores, for scores constructed with sets of SNPs meeting different P-value thresholds. In addition to the analyses shown here, we conduct a sign concordance test, and we decompose the variance of the polygenic score. Overall, these analyses suggest that population stratification is unlikely to be a major concern for our 74 lead SNPs. See Supplementary Information section 3 for additional details.

Replication of 74 lead SNPs in the UK Biobank dataEstimated effect sizes (in years of schooling) and 95% confidence intervals of the 74 lead SNPs in the meta-analysis sample (N = 293,723) and the UK Biobank replication sample (N = 111,349). The reference allele is the allele associated with higher values of EduYears in the meta-analysis sample. SNPs are in descending order of R2 in the meta-analysis sample. Of the 74 lead SNPs, 72 have the anticipated sign in the replication sample, 52 replicate at the 0.05 significance level, and 7 replicate at the 5×10−8 significance level.

Q-Q plots for the 74 lead EduYears SNPs (or LD proxies) in published GWAS of other phenotypesSNPs with concordant effects on both phenotypes are pink, and SNPs with discordant effects are blue. SNPs outside the gray area pass Bonferroni-corrected significance thresholds that correct for the total number of SNPs we tested (P < 0.05/74 = 6.8×10-4) and are labeled with their rs numbers. Observed and expected P-values are on a –log10 scale. For the sign concordance test: * P < 0.05, ** P < 0.01, and *** P < 0.001.

Regional association plots for four of the ten prioritized SNPs for MHBA phenotypes identified using EduYears as a proxy phenotypea, cognitive performance; b, hippocampus; c, intracranial volume; d, neuroticism. The four were selected because very few genome-wide significant SNPs have been previously reported for these traits. Data sources and methods are described in Supplementary Information section 3. The R2 values are from the hg19 / 1000 Genomes Nov 2014 EUR references samples. The figures were created with LocusZoom (http://csg.sph.umich.edu/locuszoom/). Mb, megabases.

Application of fgwas to EduYears. See Supplementary Information section 4.2 for further detailsa, The results of single-annotation models. “Enrichment” refers to the factor by which the prior odds of association at an LD-defined region must be multiplied if the region bears the given annotation; this factor is estimated using an empirical Bayes method applied to all SNPs in the GWAS meta-analysis regardless of statistical significance. Annotations were derived from ENCODE and a number of other data sources. Plotted are the base-2 logarithms of the enrichments and their 95% confidence intervals. Multiple instances of the same annotation correspond to independent replicates of the same experiment. b, The results of combining multiple annotations and applying model selection and cross-validation. Although the maximum-likelihood estimates are plotted, model selection was performed with penalized likelihood. c, Reweighting of GWAS loci. Each point represents an LD-defined region of the genome, and shown are the regional posterior probabilities of association (PPAs). The x-axis give the PPA calculated from the GWAS summary statistics alone, whereas the y-axis gives the PPA upon reweighting on the basis of the annotations in b. The orange points represent genomic regions where the PPA is equivalent to the standard GWAS significance threshold only upon reweighting.

Tissue-level biological annotationa, The enrichment factor for a given tissue type is the ratio of variance explained by SNPs in that group to the overall fraction of SNPs in that group. To benchmark the estimates for EduYears, we compare the enrichment factors to those obtained when we use the largest GWAS conducted to date on body mass index, height, and waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI. The estimates were produced with the LDSC python software, using the LD Scores and functional annotations introduced in Finucane et al. (2015) and the HapMap3 SNPs with MAF > 0.05. Each of the 10 enrichment calculations for a particular cell type is performed independently, while each controlling for the 52 functional annotation categories in the full baseline model. The error bars show the 95% confidence intervals. b, We took measurements of gene expression by the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) Consortium and determined whether the genes overlapping EduYears-associated loci are significantly overexpressed (relative to genes in random sets of loci matched by gene density) in each of 37 tissue types. These types are grouped in the panel by organ. The colored bars corresponding to tissues where there is significant overexpression. The y-axis is the significance on a –log10 scale.

Gene-level biological annotationa, The DEPICT-prioritized genes for EduYears measured in the BrainSpan Developmental Transcriptome data (red curve) are more strongly expressed in the brain prenatally rather than postnatally. The DEPICT-prioritized genes exhibit similar gene-expression levels across different brain regions (gray lines). Analyses were based on log2-transformed RNA-Seq data. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. b, For each phenotype and disorder, we calculated the overlap between the phenotype's DEPICT-prioritized genes and genes believed to harbor de novo mutations causing the disorder. The bars correspond to odds ratios. EduYears, years of education; BMI, body mass index; WHR, waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI. c, DEPICT-prioritized genes in EduYears-associated loci exhibit substantial overlap with genes previously reported to harbor sites where mutations increase risk of intellectual disability and autism spectrum disorder (Supplementary Table 4.6.1).